Media workers cover the Global South Media and Think Tank Forum 2025 in Kunming, Yunnan Province, on 6 September (XINHUA)

Amid overlapping crises and uncertainties as the world enters an era of turbulence and transformation, the countries of the Global South are swiftly emerging from the periphery of world politics to the forefront of international cooperation, playing an increasingly vital role in advancing humanity’s collective progress. 

In the past two years, the BRICS group achieved a historic expansion, and the African Union joined the G20 as its 21st member. These events highlight the growing collective strength of the Global South, which has evolved from a passive participant in global governance into an active shaper and driver of it. 

South Africa’s G20 presidency in 2025, which marks the fourth consecutive year of presidency by a Global South country, further demonstrates such momentum. It reflects a shared determination to promote multilateral cooperation, resist unilateralism and hegemonic politics, and pursue sustainable global development. 

Under Brazil’s presidency in 2024, the G20 focused on eradicating hunger and poverty, mobilising global action on climate change, and reforming global governance. With the theme of “Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability,” South Africa’s presidency prioritised disaster resilience and response, debt sustainability for low-income countries, financing a just energy transition, and promoting inclusive growth through the responsible use of critical minerals. President Cyril Ramaphosa emphasised that the G20 “needs to forge consensus on the actions we must take collectively to build a global economy that is more resilient, more sustainable and more equal.” 

Growing strength 

While the strategic foundation for stability endures, intensifying great-power competition has become the most unpredictable factor in today’s shifting global order. Traditional middle powers, such as Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Germany, and Sweden, have largely aligned with the US and reinforced Western alliances, leading to a decline in their once-independent diplomatic influence. In contrast, a new group of “key middle powers,” led by India, Brazil, and South Africa, has emerged, embracing what is often termed multi-alignment - an approach based on autonomy and flexible cooperation across blocs. 

The term “key middle powers” refers to developing countries within the Global South that have risen to prominence since the post-Cold War era. Scholars differ on which countries are part of this group. The narrower list includes Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Türkiye, while broader definitions expand the list to include Mexico, Argentina, Nigeria, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and Vietnam. These countries are also viewed as “global swing states,” wielding significant influence on geopolitics and favouring more complex and balanced partnerships over fixed alliances. 

Economically, these countries cannot yet match developed economies, but they possess significant scale and vast potential. The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects in January 2024 still classifies rich oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia as developing economies; yet many of these states have moved far beyond the least-developed category, and several now rival advanced nations in GDP. 

According to IMF data released in April 2024, India ranks fifth globally with a GDP of $3.94 trillion, ahead of the UK and France; Brazil is eighth with $2.33 trillion, surpassing Italy and Canada. Mexico, Indonesia, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia each exceeds $1 trillion, all within the world’s top 20 economies. Goldman Sachs projects that by 2050, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Nigeria will rank among the world’s top 15 economies, with India and Nigeria expected to rise to second and fifth place, respectively, by 2075. Economically, these nations are moving steadily towards the global centre stage. 

Their importance is magnified by their roles in global supply-chain restructuring. India could become the next manufacturing hub; Brazil holds advantages in commodities and agriculture; Mexico and Vietnam benefit from near- and off-shoring opportunities; and resource-rich states such as Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Argentina are at the centre of global attention due to oil, nickel, and lithium reserves. 

Politically, key middle powers vary in governance models and democratic maturity, yet they maintain significant international influence. This collective power arises from several structural advantages. 

First, many of the middle powers have large populations: India has a population of 1.44 billion, Indonesia, 280 million, Brazil, 210 million, and Mexico, 130 million. Even smaller nations like Saudi Arabia (37.5 million) and Nigeria (229 million) possess more demographic weight compared to some advanced countries, such as Canada and Australia. Additionally, countries like India, Indonesia, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia have significant Muslim populations, enhancing their influence within the Islamic world. 

Second, they enjoy strong regional leadership. Indonesia is the de facto leader of ASEAN; Türkiye controls vital geopolitical chokepoints; and Brazil, South Africa, and Nigeria are central to their regional economies. Their dispersed geographical presence gives them wide leverage in shaping regional peace, governance and development agendas. 

Third, they have substantial influence on agenda-setting through platforms such as the G20, where eight of them - Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Türkiye, Argentina, and Mexico - are members. The successive G20 presidencies of Indonesia, India, Brazil, and South Africa since 2022 exemplify their collective diplomatic weight. 

Unlike many traditional middle powers that have become complacent or overly reliant on larger allies, key middle powers today demonstrate both the capability and the ambition to lead. In contrast to Canada’s increasingly passive diplomacy, countries like Türkiye, India, and Brazil adopt more assertive foreign policies. 

Delegates attend the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on 21 February 2024 (XINHUA) 

A long road to multipolarity 

Despite their momentum, key middle powers face several constraints. The US continues to wield the greatest influence over the Global South. Challenging US dominance or the current international order in the near term remains unrealistic. 

Internally, vulnerabilities persist. Argentina’s new leadership has shifted away from its previous multilateral approach, aligning more closely with the West, even withdrawing from BRICS.  

Finally, unity within the Global South is not guaranteed. Differences in development levels, ideology, and strategic interest often surface - such as India’s abstention on a UN resolution for a Gaza ceasefire. Some key middle powers even exhibit regional hegemonic tendencies, undermining solidarity. 

All these factors indicate that while the multilateral diplomacy of key middle powers holds much promise, it still faces numerous challenges to overcome, and the process towards a truly multipolar world will be a long and arduous one.  

Huang Zhong, Associate Research Fellow, Centre for Canadian Studies, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies 

Song Xiaoli, Assistant Researcher, Peru Research Centre, Hebei Normal University