China is likely to become one of the major producers of shale gas in the coming years, which could change the global energy mix for a long time to come. This is indicated by a study released by the World Energy Council (WEC) at the Africa Energy Indaba in Johannesburg in February, surveying the growth of unconventional gas supplies around the world and their impact on gas markets.

In recent years, shale gas from the United States and coal-bed methane from Australia have begun to make their way to the international market in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), keeping prices down. Further changes are predicted as exploration and production escalates elsewhere, particularly in China.

According to the study, Unconventional Gas, a Global Phenomenon, several countries are now sitting on game-changing reserves of such fuels, but China's estimated share of shale gas far outstrips those of others.

Production from the Sichuan Basin in southwest China is expected to reach 30 billion cubic meters by 2020, up from the present 1.3 bcm, which will feed the country's plans to ensure affordable and secure supplies of energy. Had it not been for the basin's mountainous location and the scarcity of water, which is needed to extract the gas, China could have counted on production in the region of 60 bcm, which would have paved the way for a "United States-inspired shale revolution."

Still, production rates in some of the wells are comparable to the reserves in Marcellus, New York, which the study called "one of the most prolific unconventional basins in North America," and which, along with another well, accounted for 85 percent of all natural gas production in the United States four years ago.

The study also looks at China's production of coal-bed methane, which has grown significantly on the back of partnerships and sophisticated technology. In Changbei in northwest China, where China National Petroleum Corp. is working with Shell, production is expected to reach 14 bcm within the next four years. Combined, the shale and methane outputs are expected to reach 60 bcm by 2020, soaring to 150 bcm by 2030.

However, China needs to overcome a string of hurdles - issues of land access and operability, infrastructure development as well as technical capability. But once those challenges are overcome, China ought to be able to replace substantial LNG imports.

This is good news for consumers in China and elsewhere where reserves of unconventional gas are also in good supply, such as Argentina, Mexico and Turkey.

"Its spread around the world is being accelerated because it can make gas more affordable to consumers and reduce concerns about the security of supply," said WEC Secretary General Christoph Frei. While the United States is still regarded as the leader in the shale gas boom, other countries can "learn how to become LNG producers or exporters, which will change the global dynamics of energy," Frei said.