Nile question
It is also feasible that the waters of the River Nile were connected with the visit to Beijing. The Nile is Egypt's lifeline, and when Ethiopia decided to build the huge Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Gibe, leaders in Cairo became predictably uneasy at the thought of a possible reduction in the volume of this vital water supply flowing to Egypt.
Wanyonyi noted that, because China provides loans to Ethiopia and Sudan to build dams, the issue was definitely going to come up in talks with the Chinese administration. To expect Sudan and Ethiopia to stop their projects just to fulfill Egypt's interests would be naïve.
"Their interest in dam construction is, at this point, purely economic. Thus, Egypt must stress the importance of this issue to its most basic national interest and assert its historical right to a vital resource," noted Nabil Fahmy, Dean of the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the American University in Cairo, in an essay published in The Cairo Review of Global Affairs.
His advice to the Morsi administration is that Egypt should work with Ethiopia and Sudan, and strike deals on how to stop the damming of the Nile. He also hinted that the process might involve "multilateral trade agreements" and that's where China could be called upon to negotiate with the other countries on behalf of Egypt. While this may be a long shot, given the high stakes involved, it is not beyond Egypt to do so.
Fuel resources
There is also the question of fuel resources. Both Wye and Wanyonyi told ChinAfrica, in separate interviews, that China's relationship with Egypt will assure China of oil and gas resources from the Middle East, needed to fuel its economic growth.
"The Mediterranean is now a hotbed of natural gas: Turkey, Cyprus, Israel and Lebanon have all found massive quantities of natural gas in their waters. Only Egypt has not developed its gas potential in that sea," said Wanyonyi, adding that China is keen to be involved in this opportunity.
On the same issue, Wye said China welcomed Morsi as the leader of one of the key Arab nations based on its growing interest in the Middle East.
"With China increasingly becoming involved and interested in developments in the Middle East, both because of its growing dependence on Middle Eastern oil, and because of its cautious attitude to political change in the Middle East, China will probably have wanted to reassure itself that President Morsi's government would continue to provide stability," said Wye.
But that said, the Egypt-China partnership is also part of a wider foreign policy target that according to Egyptian scholar, Nabil Fahmy, who served as envoy to Japan and the United States under Mubarak, will involve getting Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, in the loop.
"Egypt must also seek to court those extra-regional emerging powers - especially the BRICS grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - whose growing economic and strategic clout have already lent considerable weight to their international policies," Nabil wrote in an essay published in September. "These relationships will prove a great boon if bolstered by successful domestic reform and a position of regional leadership," he wrote.
On this foreign policy angle, the thinking in Africa is that a stable Egypt will help China in its relationships with other member countries under the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.
Wye believes that China sees Egypt as "completely crucial" to its continental policy with Africa. Egypt, for its part, has to try and recover its traditional power as a leader in thought, and as a powerbroker in the Middle East.
Morsi left China with a $200 million investment loan, a one-off $70.31 million grant aimed at infrastructure development and environmental projects and a gift of 300 police cars to help bolster Egypt's security. This and other cooperative agreements signed could be crucial to solidify his first term in office, by assisting the mending of Egypt's broken infrastructure and stalled development.
(Reporting from Kenya) |