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VOL.4 January 2012
Getting the Balance Right
Maintaining stable growth, rebalancing the economy and combating inflation are high on China's agenda in 2012
by Hu Yue

Meanwhile steps to transform the growth pattern are already underway. The country's12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15) vowed vigorous efforts to propel consumption, develop the service sector and eliminate polluting and energy-guzzling businesses.

In September China raised the cut-off point for personal income tax to 3,500 yuan ($553) from 2,000 yuan ($316), a move expected to bolster wage growth and fuel consumptions.

Meanwhile, the energy efficient and environment-friendly industries are getting the chance to shine. In attempts to diversify away from fossil fuel, China has made headways in wind and solar energies.

"Economic rebalancing should be a long-term task for China, whatever external environment it faces," said Wang Tao, Chief Economist with the UBS.

"The key is to deepen market-oriented reforms and liberalize pricing of several elementary factors such as power, land and interest rates," she said. "It is necessary to allow the markets play a leading role in promoting rebalancing."

 

Inflationary fears

Inflation remains a headache for the economy, though its acuteness is already moderating.

"Upward pressures on consumer prices remain, and we will continue comprehensive measures to prevent inflation from rebounding," said the CEWC statement.

The consumer price index (CPI), a barometer of inflation, grew 4.2 percent in November 2011 from the previous year, 1.3 percentage points down from October, said the National Bureau of Statistics. This was the fourth straight month of declines, after peaking at 6.5 percent in July 2011.

The biggest driver of the CPI was still food prices, which leapt 8.8 percent in November over the same period 2010. Pork prices, in particular, jumped 26.5 percent.

The producer price index (PPI), an effective gauge of inflation at the wholesale level, edged up slightly by 2.7 percent in November, 2.3 percentage points lower from the previous month.

Policymakers have been pushing all the buttons to tame inflation, with government distributing subsidies to farmers in wheat-growing areas, enhanced price supervision and fought hard against speculation.

"The challenge for policymakers is to enact measures that boost domestic demand and to loosen credit controls somewhat without stoking inflation and property price bubbles," said Jing Ulrich, JP Morgan's chairwoman for global markets.

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