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VOL.3 January 2011
Getting to Grips With Inflation

The 2010 CENTRAL ECONOMIC WORK CONFERENCE that ended on December 12 offered clear reasons for optimism as policymakers announced their intent to focus on managing inflation expectations in 2011. According to a statement released after the annual top-level economic conference, China endorsed replacing the "appropriately loose" monetary policy with a "prudent" one. Such a policy change is important for maintaining stable growth in the coming years. It will also pave the way for a more aggressive transformation of China's growth pattern in the long run, and set the tone for the country's future economic development. YI XIANRONG, a researcher with the Institute of Finance and Banking under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; LIU YUANCHUN, Deputy Dean with School of Economics of Renmin University of China; and CHEN FENGYING, Director of the Institute of World Economic Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations share their opinions on the sidelines of the annual economic conference. Edited excerpts follow:

Yi Xianrong:

Since the start of the global financial crisis, the Chinese Government has adopted an appropriately loose monetary policy to ensure economic recovery. Now, a shift to prudent measures means the end of the monetary policy adopted at an abnormal time (from November of 2008 to October of 2010). It is a significant adjustment in monetary policy. It shows the country's determination to better manage liquidity to promote the transformation of the national growth model and economic restructuring. The move will help maintain financial stability and stabilize the general price level as well as effectively rein in inflation and the rapid rises in property prices.

Liu Yuanchun:

Global economic instability still poses risk to China's economic recovery. It can be expected that financial input will lean from infrastructure to the construction of social welfares network and economic restructuring, as China is to enter into the 12th Five-year Plan. It should be noted that currently, rises in food and property prices are expected to continue. In this setting, some speculative activities have driven up prices of agricultural products. The surge [in prices] has become a major concern. Improving people's livelihoods is always the focus in the macroeconomic policies of the government. Therefore, the government should improve its social security network and raise the minimum wage across the country to calm low-income consumers faced with accelerating inflation.

Chen Fengying:

The country will lay equal stress on imports and exports, as well as the attraction of foreign investment and making investments abroad. The government aims at promoting balanced international trade as one of its major tasks next year, which is driven by the economic restructuring during the 12th Five-year Plan. China will optimize its products mix by giving priority to technology import, so as to reduce costs in R&D and promote economic restructuring. China also pledges to increase imports as rapid economic growth in China leads to expanding imports. Taking measures to expand imports, which is regarded as an effective way to continue reducing trade surplus, can help refute some countries' criticism of China's efforts [to reduce surplus.] Besides, the government encourages foreign investment in high-end manufacturing industry, scientific and technological innovation, service sector, energy-saving industry and the less-developed central and western regions, to speed up the transformation of the economic development pattern. Strengthening the "going global" strategy raised at this conference indicates that some traditional outbound investment modes, for example in natural resources sector, are being challenged, as nowadays many competitive Chinese enterprises have built their presence oversea. An urgent issue facing Chinese enterprises overseas is to keep abreast of dynamic changes in the industry so as to strengthen their position in the international market. In the face of increasing international competition, they need to transform and upgrade while policy support can play an active role. 

 

 

 

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