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VOL.3 March 2011
The Impact of Egypt's Revolution on Africa
On January 25, massive protests broke out in Egypt resulting in President Hosni Mubarak being forced to resign from office on February 11. Egypt's latest developments have aroused great concern in the international community. Zhang Zhongxiang, Deputy Director of the Department of West Asian and African Studies of Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, shared his thoughts with ChinAfrica on the causes of this event and its impact on African countries. Excerpts follow:

There are many reasons for the protests. First, the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia provided the incentive. From the economic perspective, a high unemployment rate, soaring prices, and a particularly more difficult situation for young people are the main reasons. Politically, the public is dissatisfied with Hosni Mubarak's long-term rule, and they don't want to see the presidency passed to his son. Those long-suppressed political organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood demand the abolishment of the emergency law, and want to get more involved in political life. But why did the protests break out in early 2011? The reason is that the protests occurred against the backdrop of further development of economic globalization, world multi-polarization and accelerated transformation of the international system, particularly when the effects of the global financial crisis have not been completely eliminated. Therefore, the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia are the aftermaths of the global financial crisis.

 

Global financial crisis

The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 was a heavy blow to the world economy, and its negative impacts are still being felt. Developed countries headed by the United States have done everything possible to shift the financial and economic crisis, from which many developing countries, including emerging markets, suffer greatly.

In November 2010, the United States launched its second round of the quantitative easing monetary policy, implemented the bond purchase plan of $600 billion and retained short-term interest rates at almost a zero point rating.  All these lead to the depreciation of the dollar and a new round of commodity soaring prices, which gave the developing countries and emerging markets huge inflationary pressure. Currently, the oil price remains high and fluctuates between $90 and $100 a barrel. Meanwhile, prices of agricultural products keep on increasing. All of the above-mentioned factors inevitably lead to inflation in developing countries and emerging markets, and exert increasing pressure on people's livelihoods.

Since its economic reform in the 1990s, Egypt has been developing toward the direction of a free and market-oriented economy and become one of the second-tier emerging markets, second only to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries. It's also included in the CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Viet Nam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) and the Next Eleven (South Korea, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, the Philippines, Egypt, Viet Nam, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Iran).

However, among all the emerging markets, Egypt's economic power is still relatively weak and limited in combating the global financial crisis. Its service industry accounts for about 50 percent of the country's GDP, whereas its major industries are textile, food processing and other light industries. The rural population accounts for 55 percent of the total, while agriculture accounts for 14 percent of the GDP. Oil and gas, tourism, overseas remittances and the Suez Canal are the four major sources of foreign exchange. As an agricultural country, Egypt still needs to import food in large amounts. As one of the world's largest food importers, it imports 9 million tons of wheat every year. The rise of commodity prices in the world market led to the soaring of food prices in Egypt. This caused the dissatisfaction of the public, and one of the protest slogans is related to the rise of food prices.

 

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