Impact on Africa

First of all, this event will promote the democratization process in Africa. Mubarak resigned as a result of the large-scale protests and the country's heir issue was solved in a completely new way. Mubarak, who was a fighter pilot in the fourth Middle-East war, was a hero in the Arab world. After becoming the Egyptian President in 1981, he made his own contribution to the socio-economic development in Egypt. However, in his ruling of the last 30 years, the political system has become more and more rigid, while the society has gradually lost vigor and vitality. Hence, the public's discontent has gradually accumulated, which ultimately gives rise to the outbreak of the large-scale protests.

It has been nearly 20 years since the wave of promoting multi-party systems and democratization took place in African countries in the early 1990s. The movement has brought wars and suffering to many African countries, but democracy has been gradually accepted by Africans. They have made every effort to explore their own way of democratization with African characteristics. Through the street revolution, Egypt, Tunisia and other African countries have changed regimes quickly. It still takes time to see whether Western countries will use this method to promote a new round of democratization in Africa.  

 Second, this incident may affect the previously sound momentum of economic development in Africa. The African economy began to recover from the mid-1990s. Since the new century, it has experienced rapid growth, with the annual average economic growth exceeding 5 percent during 2003-08. However, under the impact of the international financial crisis, Africa's economic growth fell to only 1.6 percent in 2009. Yet Africa is one of the regions in the world that moved out of the financial crisis rapidly.  Its economic growth increased to 4.8 percent in 2010, and is expected to reach 5.5 percent in 2011.

 However, will the Egyptian revolution and the Tunisia revolution lead to a domino effect in African countries? And will that see a worsening of the political situation in Africa adversely affecting its economic recovery? Many African countries are politically vulnerable because of complicated ethnic, religious and social conflicts. The unrests triggered by the presidential elections in Kenya and Zimbabwe in 2008 still remain clear in people's minds.

Mubarak's government looked powerful, but it was easily overthrown by a street revolution, which may bring new hope to the opposition. They may think that the cost of the revolution is low, which may make the vulnerable political situation in Africa even worse and affect the good economic momentum there. For instance, under the pressure from the West, the division between the north and the south will soon become reality in Sudan. Faced the pressure from the opposition, Sudan President Omar al-Bashir claimed responsibility for losing the southern part of the country. As Sudan is a very important oil producer, any future turmoil in the region may have great impact on the African economy and even the world economy.

Third, this offers an opportunity for African countries to adjust their policies, if they can learn lessons from the change of the Egyptian regime. It seems that South Africa, which has just joined in the BRICS group, has already taken actions. On February 10, South African President Jacob Zuma declared 2011 "the year of job creation." The South African Government will spend 29 billion rand ($4.04 billion) on job creation, and the initiatives include setting up an employment fund and implementing tax incentives for investors. The Congress of South African Trade Unions welcomed the government's measures, which is regarded as "a very good start."

Egypt is the first African country to establish diplomatic ties with China. China has always attached great importance to the development of diplomatic relations with Egypt. China takes the relationship as an integral part of Sino-African cooperation and Sino-Arabian cooperation, and is actively developing a new strategic partnership with Egypt. The fourth Ministerial Meeting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation was held in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt in November 2009. Based on the independent foreign policy of peace, China is against the foreign interference in Egypt's internal affairs, and advocates that Egypt should deal with its own affairs. China hopes that the situation in Egypt can remain stable, and the two sides will continue to push forward the development of bilateral strategic partnership.