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VOL.5 January 2013
Seeking Balance
Zhang Zhongxiang

The "constitutional declaration" and the "constitutional referendum" proposed by Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi have both led to the greatest political crisis in Egypt since the new president's election. In an article for ChinAfrica, Zhang Zhongxiang, Deputy Director of African Studies Center of Shanghai Normal University, espouses the belief that the crisis indicates a sharp religious-secular conflict in the country, and that the democratization of the Middle East will be a long process. Excerpts of his writing follow:

The turmoil in West Asia and North Africa that started in early 2011 is continuing. The conflict in Syria has lasted nearly two years, and has moved from Aleppo to Damascus; rebels in Libya toppled Gaddafi's administration in August 2011, but the country still hasn't elected a president due to the chaos between different factions. Even in Tunis, the origin of the "Arab Spring" movement, people are not satisfied, as their lives have remained unchanged since the revolution.

This all shows that it is easy to destroy an old world, but much more difficult to construct a new one. High unemployment rates and poor economic conditions are the challenges facing these countries. However, it is not easy to develop a nation's economy and improve people's livelihood.

The changes seen in Egypt are a part of the events that have happened in West Asia and North Africa. But when compared with those in countries like Libya and Syria, the change that has happened in Egypt has been comparatively peaceful, as various political factions pursue their interests through peaceful demonstrations. Tahrir Square in Cairo has become a major venue for the public to express their political views. Egypt also has numerous problems, especially the sharp contradictions between religious and secular interests. Its democratization will be a long process and cannot be achieved overnight.

In fact, after being sworn in as president in June 2012, Morsi has made great efforts to stabilize the country's domestic situation and develop the economy, and has won a good reputation through mediating the conflict between Palestine and Israel. But at the same time, he has also adopted a series of measures to consolidate his ruling position, including adjusting military leadership to smooth his relations with the military.

But he encountered challenges in dealing with the country's judiciary system. On November 22, Morsi announced a constitutional declaration, decreeing that no laws or declarations passed by the President from the time of his inauguration until a new parliament is elected can be overturned by any authority, including the Judiciary. He replaced Prosecutor General Abdel-Meguid Mahmoud with Talaat Ibrahim for a four-year term. He also declared that there would be a referendum on a draft of the new constitution.

Morsi's move to expand his power has aroused wide protests. Under pressure, Morsi first made a concession by nullifying his power-expansion declaration on December 8. One week later, the first round of referendums on the new constitution was held on December 15.

But actually, the referendum and the new constitution will not eliminate religious-secular conflicts as both factions have greatly divergent views on the future of Egypt's political development and they both want to exert more influence on the country's future political trends.

No doubt, this divergence and the conflicts in the country have exerted a negative impact on its vulnerable democratization process. Many observers believe that Egypt is now on the brink of civil war.

No matter what the results of the referendum will be, the turmoil will further tear Egyptian society. Morsi's constitutional declaration and his other measures have led to conflicts between his supporters and his opponents. These conflicts further sharpen Egypt's religious-secular divide. If the situation in Egypt continues to be this unstable or deteriorate further, it is possible that the army will interfere.

More importantly, the country's economy has been greatly influenced. Depressed economies and low employment are important reasons for the chaos in these Middle Eastern countries, and Egypt is no exception. An ancient civilization, Egypt boasts abundant tourism resources. But this long-lasting turmoil has been a blow to its tourism industry. The conflicts after the constitutional crisis have further hurt the country's economy. On November 25, its stock market tumbled 9.59 percent, with 30 billion Egyptian pounds vanishing in one day. Egypt is now heavily in debt.

Egypt is an important country for the Middle East and Africa, and is playing a positive role in maintaining regional peace and stability. Under current conditions, with an ongoing crisis in Syria, continued chaos in Iraq, and no end in sight for the conflict between Palestine and Israel, it is important for Egypt to be stable.

In fact, the constitutional declaration and the constitutional referendum only lit the fuse of religious-secular conflicts, which had existed even during the Mubarak era. It will be a long time before the divide can be bridged. In addition, politicians' wisdom and tolerance, and consultations among different parties are also important. In the process of promoting democracy in Egypt, it is good for political leaders to consider the interests of different organizations and religious groups so as to avoid negative repercussions for the country's future development.  

 

 

 

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