Optimists who entertained thoughts that Egypt would revert to its former state of peace and tranquility after parliamentary elections must have been badly jolted in early February. This is when a fairly innocuous event, a football match between two traditionally rival teams, ended with the death of over 70 people. How a sporting event can lead to such sectarian-motivated carnage underpins the deep-seated animosities unleashed after the January 25, 2011 revolution. More importantly, the football match incident is but one in a string of unsettling events that point to difficult times ahead for Arab-Muslim's most populous nation.  

The cocktails of anarchic factors that put Egypt on the list of the world's unstable nations for the foreseeable future are as many as they are multifaceted. The deposing of former strongman Hosni Mubarak slightly over a year ago blew the lid on social, religious, economic and political differences that today provide fodder for incessant battles.

If the parliamentary elections that were supposed to heal the wounds and put the nation on a fresh start were seen as the panacea, things have turned out opposite at least in the present. This is because political parties associated with political Islam such as the ultra conservative Nour Party and the equally fear inspiring Muslim Brotherhood collectively turned tables on moderates and secularists.

Combat lines are plentiful. The Christian minority have a long standing grudge against both the provisional military government and the conservative Muslims having witnessed a steep rise in deaths as well as the targeting of churches. The radical Muslim wings are at loggerheads with the military government agitating for its immediate removal. The youths, who were the lifeblood of the Tahrir Square protests that fronted the revolution, are having run-ins with both the military and older establishment figures whom they accuse of being counterrevolutionary.

In that clutter of often violent conflicts, throw in charges that some foreign forces are interfering in Egyptian affairs and you have a perfect picture of a situation that could implode with disastrous effects for Africa, Middle East and indeed the world. Particularly accused for "outside" meddling are the United States and the Gulf States, both having been allies of Mubarak and having moved with alacrity to embrace the Supreme Council of Armed Forces toward a less radical path. It is in light of this that the appointment of an interim Prime Minister, Kamal El-Ganzoury, and a Mubarak-era politician has further stoked indignation toward the military.

Against the messy situation in Egypt, it is worthwhile noting that the country is of immense geostrategic and geopolitical interests to Africa, Middle East and world powers. For years, the country has provided ground for the U.S. fight against terrorism, serving as both the launch pad for counterterrorist maneuvers and the bulwark against the spread of terrorism farther afield in Europe and Africa. With intelligence reporting the rise of Al Qaeda-inclined groups, the world and particularly the West has everything to worry about.

Egypt abuts the Mediterranean, a major transport hub linking the Atlantic (therefore North America), Europe, Africa and Middle East. The man-made Suez Canal is used both for trade and military transport and securing it needs a pliant leadership in Cairo. Though relations with Israel with which it shares a border are officially cordial, there is no question that negative sentiments against Tel Aviv by some politically active groups are high as the attack on the Israel embassy late last year by rioters demonstrates.

With other nations in North Africa and Middle East going through turbulent times, worries have been expressed, both at the African Union and Arab League levels, that any structural collapse in Egypt could spell doom for these fragile regions.

Parliamentary elections done with, the next battle ground will be how the interim military leadership navigates power transfer to a civilian leadership. This is an important question particularly because the parliamentary elections have indicated that in a fair contest, a secular politician might have slim chances indeed for winning over religion backed candidates. Indeed, this has led to fears that a country that was until now given to secular mannerisms and culture might end up under the veil of a strict Muslim code of the variety that might stifle tourism – a major foreign exchange earner.

And all indications are that the perpetual street action and incidences of violence have taken their toll on the economy. According to multiple sources, inflation has shot up, unemployment is notching past 20 percent, tourism has fizzled out and foreign direct investment has dwindled coupled with capital flight. And if the situation is not bad enough, projections that it will get worse before it gets better further fuel sectarian and class differences.

Political analysts advise that the best route for the country is to allow parliament to take its place immediately as well as an expedited presidential election and transfer of power into civilian hands. As to whether vested interests will allow this to happen remains to be seen.

(The writer is a Kenyan journalist currently studying at the Communication University of China with an interest in Sino-African relations)