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VOL.3 January 2011
Opportunity From Crisis
Africa can benefit from the global financial crisis by developing and chartering its own economic course
by Zhong Weiyun

ROAD AHEAD: Africa has seen much economic progress in 2010 (ZHAO YINGQUAN)

The global economic development is like a sports competition. A loss by one competitor creates the chance for another to win. The financial crisis has seen major economies in Europe and America struggling under the burden of sluggish markets, while developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America witnessing robust momentum in economic growth. 

African countries are among those making rapid economic progress in contrast with the depression in developed countries. It is estimated that the economy of Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to register a growth of 4.5 percent in 2010.

 

Success stories

Zambia is one of the successful cases. With copper mining as the mainstay of its economy, the country is closely connected with the global economy. During the financial crisis, the copper price slumped, posing great difficulties for the Zambian economy. Through a series of stimulus policies, Zambia recovered from the crisis and regained fast development. According to statistics, Zambia's GDP growth rate was 6.3 percent in 2009. Felix Mutati, Minister of Commerce, Trade and Industry, told Lusaka Times that the economic growth in 2010 is expected to reach 8 percent. With most of people optimistic about the prospect of the country's economy, Zambia is being seen as "a model in the Sub-Saharan area for successfully dealing with the financial crisis."

Ethiopia is another successful case. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, the country has retained an average annual growth of 11 percent for seven consecutive years. Ethiopia, once being one of two poorest countries in the world, has become wealthier. When the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) came into power in 1991, the country's per-capita GDP was only $90. Nowadays, while the population has increased by 20 million in that time, the per-capita GDP rose to more than $400.

Anyone with some knowledge of this country would notice its dramatic change over the past decade, even in the remote towns far away from the capital. Newly built roads, schools, industrial parks and cement plants support small business hubs springing up in rural parts of the country. In towns like Adama, the streets remain busy even after the midnight. One can hardly relate such situation to that of 20 years ago.

A Chinese saying goes that crisis coexists with opportunity, which means crisis would entail potential opportunities. In fact, many African leaders have seen opportunities from this economic crisis.

Zenawi has deep understanding of the potential opportunities. He believes Africa now has an alternative to the Washington Consensus and the continent's resources are becoming increasingly important for emerging economies such as China and India. Africa is very likely to become the destination for the next worldwide industrial transfer, he says.

Guided by Zenawi's vision, Ethiopia's ruling EPRDF party has formulated a grand blueprint for national development. In September 2010, EPRDF put forward a five-year growth plan, aiming to double the country's GDP within five years. The country also has plans for large-scale infrastructure construction, including 3,000 km of railway. If Ethiopia's dream comes true, it will show that countries, even on the fringe of new-liberal globalization, could change their own destiny through hard work.

 

New path

Among the African countries, South Africa is most closely intertwined with the global economy. Although the economic downturn has also severely hit South Africa, leaders of the country still see opportunity from it. "The impact [of the financial crisis] across the world has not been uniform and a new trend has emerged. On the one hand we see very limited economic growth in most developed economies. Yet on the other hand, we see strong and robust growth in large parts of the African continent, Asia and Latin America," said South African President Jacob Zuma, in his address at the National General Council of the African National Congress (ANC), held in September 2010. But more importantly, he said, the economic crisis has created a challenge for one-size-fits-all policies. "Developing states have managed the crisis better than many in the old economies who followed rigid formulas. This creates space for South Africa to begin to develop policies suited to our circumstances, our needs and our people," he added.

Based on this, the ruling ANC party is creating a new mode for development, which is different from that of former President Thabo Mbeki. The Zuma administration has established some new departments, such as National Planning Commission and Ministry of Economic Development, and South Africa has recently put forward new growth plans, hoping to create 5 million jobs by 2020 through promoting the development in six key sectors - infrastructure construction, agriculture, mining, green economy, manufacturing, and tourism and services.

The financial crisis is bringing Africa positive changes, which enable the continent to choose its own development path and cooperative partners. Being able to seize the opportunity or not, the options are in the hands of African people. From this perspective, Africans are beginning to control their own destiny.

(The author is deputy director-general of African Affairs Bureau, International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China)

 

 

 

 

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