HOLDING ON:Incumbent Jean Ping

"It's not about South Africa. It is about the continent. South Africa is not the magic bullet for the success of the AU. What influence or tangible results have we seen the country deliver to the SADC? Did their intervention in Zimbabwe yield any significant impact with democratic credentials?" he asked.

Bigambo argues that for "something fundamentally transformative" to happen at the AU, there's need to tackle the "structural problem" that has dogged the organization.

The politics of integration and democracy must at some point meet the economics of development on the continent, if the AU is to make an impact, he said.

Similarly, Christine Murumba, a political scholar, formerly at the University of Nairobi, believes that the AU works very well when it comes to protecting the sovereignty of African states. The problem, Murumba, told ChinAfrica, is when it comes to corruption and good governance.

"Jean Ping has been there for the last four years, what changes did we see? We can experiment with Dlamini-Zuma and see what she brings to that level. In any case, what guarantees does the continent have that Jean Ping's performance would change if he wins at the commission?" said Murumba.

However, she remained wary about the coalition of SADC saying that Jean Ping trounced the 15-member bloc in 2008 when he defeated Inonge Mbikusita-Lewanika, who had the bloc's support.

Reform needed

The anti-Dlamini-Zuma brigade has thrown out many excuses and reasons why Jean Ping is the best bet. They say he's been there, done that, and now needs a second term to put his plans into action. When he addressed the heads of state and governments, he cited peace, food security, economic empowerment and good governance as the key issues that the continent should focus on going forward.

Those are very fine ideas. Every president knows those words by heart. Anyone campaigning for political office in Africa, or for that matter, any dignitary who thinks he has an idea or two about the problems of the continent, will mention those as the obvious solutions. But what's obvious to one may not be obvious to another.

There are those who still blame imperialists and colonial masters for the problems of their countries. There are those who blame the civil society and journalists for "negative publicity" of their countries.

These leaders, and they are many, forget that their grand appetite for corruption and mismanagement of public resources, plus their blind pursuit for power are among the reasons that their people continue to suffer under the yoke of poverty, ignorance and disease. They don't want to hand over power to younger, promising politicians, with a vision for their countries.

So, if any change has to come to the continent, it will have to begin with the individual countries, so that new presidents at the AU summit can find a way to reform the organ.

But that's a tall order considering that in the just-concluded meeting there were few fresh faces: President Michael Sata of Zambia and President Jorge Carlos Fonseca of Cape Verde. There was also Dr. Moncef Marzouki, the interim President of Tunisia and Dr. Abdurahhim El Kieba, Prime Minister of Libya.

For these four to change the thinking of the remaining 50 leaders will take time and considerable will. Or perhaps a strong-willed, non-compromising and reform-minded person at the AU Commission could just as well change the whole game. Is Dlamini-Zuma that person? Can Jean Ping up his game? Or will another candidate emerge before June?

(Reporting from Kenya)