| In July, Egypt experienced yet another political coup, this time only one year after installing a democratically elected government. Macharia Munene, a professor of history and international relations at the United States International University in Kenya, believes this latest coup serves as a warning to other countries, and underlines that a democratic government does not ensure that a country will be immune to externally engineered chaos. Excerpts of his thoughts follow:
Egypt's turmoil has attracted much attention because of its perceived influence among Arabs and Africans. The nation previously inspired African anti-colonialists and Arab nationalists and became a force for regional stability. Under Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak, Egypt led the way in embracing the West. But it became excessively dependent on American aid, which gave the U.S. leverage in Egyptian affairs, especially in military matters. Subsequently, Mubarak's Egyptian regime became a model for other nations, until it outlived its usefulness and regime change was effected by legitimate insurgencies. This was part of a remaking of the Arab world, collectively termed the "Arab Spring," which has caused much damage to the Arab world.
The pattern is the same: legitimize insurgents, delegitimize governments, intervene, change the regime, and watch chaos unfold. Egypt has, in the last three years, twice been the victim of a new insurgency-legitimizing doctrine. Organized mass uprisings force the military to intervene in order to "save" Egypt. The Egyptian military then takes its cue from the United States, overthrows the government, rewrites the constitution, and organizes "democratic" elections in the hope that people will vote correctly.
This is what happened to Mubarak. Having stepped into the shoes of Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar Sadat, his 30 years in power made for a longer reign than any other Egyptian ruler since Ramses II of the 19th Dynasty. He overstayed his welcome and his allies rose up against him. The second source of pressure on Mubarak was from his supposed "friends" in the West, who controlled the Egyptian military. Acting on advice from the United States, the Egyptian military removed Mubarak from power in 2011. They then put him in a cage, mounted a show trial, and organized a democratic election in June 2012. The "wrong" people, the Muslim Brotherhood, run by Mohamed Morsi, won, which set the stage for this latest act.
By electing Morsi, Egyptians had gone against an unwritten script that called for the election of ElBaradei. Having met with U.S. President Barack Obama in September 2009 and having petitioned Mubarak to demand political reforms in Egypt, ElBaradei made himself appear to be the reformer that Egypt supposedly needed. Egyptians, however, behaved like Algerians in 1991 and elected radical Islamists. In Algeria, the military had simply nullified the election, but the process of nullification in Egypt was subtle.
Although Mubarak outlived his usefulness, Morsi had hardly settled into his job as president when, again on American advice, the military removed Morsi and put him under house arrest. His one year in office was tumultuous, in part because he failed to understand various forces operating in Egypt. He seemingly ignored advice from the United States on how to run his government, which included appointing ElBaradei prime minister. He was also extremely naïve about the Egyptian military, even as he tried to rule by decree. Yet he allowed mass demonstrations, which tended to delegitimize his own government. By responding with his own demonstrations, however, Morsi provided the military with an excuse to intervene and "save" Egypt. General Abdelfatah al-Sissi, Morsi's trusted minister of defense, announced the coup on July 3 and appointed Supreme Court Judge Adly Mansour as interim president.
The new president has promised a new constitution and elections in six months and appointed ElBaradei vice president in charge of foreign affairs, but unlike the removal of Mubarak, the crowd was not united in supporting the coup. Instead, Egypt has become more divided than before, and fighting has broken out between the new rulers and pro-Morsi supporters. The "saviors" seem more dictatorial than the hapless Morsi, thereby pushing Egypt to the brink of civil war.
Besides the possibility of civil war, the coup legitimizes the nullification of democracy and, if allowed to stand, sets a dangerous precedent. The African Union condemned the coup for negating democracy and has rejected efforts to justify the creation of chaos. Apart from exposing the hollowness of the campaigners for democracy, the coup serves as a warning to other countries, and underlines that a democratic government does not ensure that a country will be immune to externally engineered chaos. It means that legitimizing insurgency is a real threat to security and sovereignty. CA
(Reporting from Kenya) |
