The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, the main headstream of the Nile, could be the largest in Africa once completed by 2017. The figures are impressive - 1,780 meters long and rising up to 145 meters. The GERD could hold up to 70 billion cubic meters of water in a reservoir of 1,800 square km. When its 16 turbines are powered up, Ethiopian engineers say with planned installed capacity of 6,000 MW, it could produce enough energy to meet the demands of Ethiopia with even some excess to export to neighboring Kenya and South Sudan.

But the $4.2-billion dam is also the source of a raging debate over how other countries using the Nile will be affected. Since 2011, Egypt, which has the Nile as its major water resource, has been opposed to the GERD's construction, demanding that a study be done to determine the ensuing environmental uncertainty. Ethiopia denies the GERD would affect the course of the river and cites an environmental study done before the construction began. The Nile is over 6,000 km long, making it the world's longest river. Its waters are shared by 11 countries in northeastern Africa with the White Nile and Blue Nile being the two major tributaries.

The Nile originates in Burundi, flowing as the White Nile northward through the Great Lakes region, then onward through Tanzania, Uganda and South Sudan. Kenya's contribution is through its river waters flowing to Lake Victoria, from where the White Nile flows in Uganda. Ethiopia's Blue Nile contributes about 80 percent of the water volume. 

Long-standing dispute

Gathered in Nairobi for the Fourth Nile Basin Development Forum in October, delegates from the 11 Nile Basin countries argued that the changing demographics in the basin require a new agreement on its use. "The vision is clear that we have to use equitably and make wise use of the water resources we have. In these times, we have to all benefit from the basin," Sudan's Water Resources and Electricity Minister Mutaz Abdalla Salim told ChinAfrica in Nairobi. The Nile is Sudan's major water resource too.

Salim chairs the Nile Council of Ministers comprising water and environment ministers under the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), a partnership among Nile countries to develop the river and foster peace and stability in the region. Egypt's claims over exclusive use of the Nile are rooted in a 1929 treaty with the British colonies of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania (then called Tanganyika). At the time, Egypt was guaranteed 57 percent of the waters and riparian states had to get "permission"  from Cairo before starting any projects upstream, such as irrigation and electricity. In 1959, Egypt signed another treaty with Sudan, which gave Cairo 66-percent ownership of the waters. Ethiopia was not consulted, even though it contributed the largest share to the water. Egypt and Sudan have since built mega dams along the Nile - the Aswan High Dam in Egypt's Aswan Town, and the Merowe Dam in Khartoum.

Riparian states have long felt exploited. For one, the colonial treaty was signed before they gained independence, which means they had no say in it.

"Egypt has historically had a giant share of the Nile waters. We, the emerging countries, have said we do not recognize the 1929 and 1959 agreements because they prevented us from using the Nile water resources," said Judi Wakhungu, Kenya's Cabinet Secretary for Environment, Water and Natural Resources. She told the October forum that Kenyans can argue they can make full use of the water, but they must cooperate with partners in the basin as that is the only way to proceed forward. 

Climate change threat

Wakhungu admits that countries in the region could in future go to war over water if a new treaty is not reached soon. The basin is now home to more than 600 million people, about half the population in Africa, according to World Bank estimates. With currently 25 dams planned on the Nile, another problem has arisen. Environmentalists warn the waters of the Nile are reducing due to climate change, which means a subsequent dwindling of resources.

" The vulnerability of the Nile to climate change is increasingly becoming a great concern; frequent floods, disappearance or change in behavior of wildlife and even drought are now common,"  Mark James Mwandosya, Tanzania's former Water and Irrigation Minister, told the forum.

In 1999, the region's states began a renegotiation for "an all-inclusive" treaty for the use of the waters under the NBI initiative. In 2010 it gave rise to the Comprehensive Framework Agreement (CFA) reached in Entebbe, Uganda.

Shadow of war

Six upstream countries (Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda) were signatories to the CFA, while Sudan and Egypt declined its content entirely. The CFA was aimed at creating a commission to oversee Nile projects and required parliaments to endorse it. Only two countries have since ratified it: Ethiopia and Rwanda. The Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan have not signed the agreement, but have shown interest by attending all NBI meetings. South Sudan was not yet born when the CFA came into being, meaning the signatories must agree to reopen it for renegotiation.

Egypt's problem with the CFA are the provisions that basin countries should renegotiate the percentage shares of the water use, reducing Egypt's share. Cairo also opposes the provision that decisions be taken through voting, rather than consensus. It opposes this because riparian states have traditionally demanded a larger share of water, which means it would be technically disadvantaged. 

War over water

"While the specter of a global water shortage is real, talk of the Nile Basin becoming the first battlefield in the coming water wars is a bit of a distraction. This does not mean that war over the Nile is to be ruled out. In fact, despite the rampant vulnerability, the countries may find it impossible to compromise on their own demands," Hassen Hussein, an Ethiopian expert on Nile politics, told ChinAfrica. However, these countries, he argued, face a greater danger from within their own borders, rather than from external threats.

There is hope. Salim said that Egypt was beginning to loosen up on demands. Time will tell how this water runs. 

(Reporting from Kenya)