Who's Best for Business?
In March, investment adviser PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) published a report, Into Africa: the Continent's Cities of Opportunity, listing the "top 20" cities in Africa. The ranking was made on the basis of 29 indicators, such as location and infrastructure. A smaller list names the "top 10" cities based on the opportunities they offer. In line with this, ChinAfrica went looking for the five best cities for Chinese investors. Our experts share their picks:
Joburg is No. 1
Walter Ruigu, Managing Director of China-Africa Merchants Advisors
1.Johannesburg
2. Lagos
3.Accra-Lusaka
4.Dar es Salaam
5.Nairobi
Honorable mentions: Luanda & Addis Ababa
Chinese investors are rational, seeking returns with minimal risk. Even the state is increasingly reticent about high-risk investments and regions. While the PwC list places North Africa very high, Chinese investors are still wary of the region in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. For instance, Chinese firms lost almost $20 billion in Libya alone (during the overthrow of the Muammar Gaddafi government in 2011) and thousands of Chinese citizens had to be evacuated. There is a lot of confusion about Chinese investment in Africa, partly due to the scarcity of reliable data, especially on private investment. China is definitely undertaking a lot of projects, but most of these have been project contracting funded by African governments, loans from Chinese banks or international financial institutions. To determine which cities are favorable for Chinese investment, it is important to remember:
1. Chinese investment in an area tends to be followed by more Chinese investment, so it's important to know where the existing Chinese investments are to predict future flows;
2. Chinese investors tend to follow the Chinese Government's policies.
Johannesburg is still No.1. It has stability, a regulatory environment, and the most buoyant stock market index in Africa. This year, it is hosting the Year of China in South Africa while last year Beijing hosted the Year of South Africa in China. In 2015 the Sixth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Ministerial Conference is also being held in South Africa. The downturn in the mining sector has led to various Chinese investors buying low-priced assets. Finally, there has been a progression in investment in vineyards and real estate. A notable example is Shanghai Zendai Property, which is set to construct the "New York of Africa" (in northeast Johannesburg). The Chinese are rational investors, they feel their money is safe in this city and they get returns.
Lagos is the capital of the second biggest economy in Africa by GDP, whose trade with China is worth nearly $20 billion. Last year, China Railway Construction won a deal worth almost $12 billion to build a railway along the Nigerian coast. The election of a new president (Muhammadu Buhari in March) has given a lot of hope to investors. Nigeria offers not only resources but manufacturing opportunities as well and is going to be a powerhouse in West Africa.
Accra's key selling points are stability and access to its ports. Investors are shifting focus from gold mining to light manufacturing and other sectors. Chinese energy company Hanergy is investing (about $1 billion) in a (400-MW power plant). In Lusaka, it is the principle of Chinese investors following other investors and the government policy. Relations between the Zambian and Chinese governments are some of the longest standing in Africa, with China funding and supporting the construction of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway in the 1970s. Zambian President Edgar Lungu attended the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2015 in China in March. Besides copper mining, there are other areas for investment like manufacturing.
As for Dar es Salaam, China's history with Tanzania is also a long one. Tanzania was the first destination abroad for Chinese President Xi Jinping after he assumed office in 2013. Tanzania has remained stable since independence in 1961, and allows access to interior countries such as Rwanda and Zambia. China is funding a port and special economic zone in Tanzania, which will attract more Chinese companies who want to develop low-cost products for exports.
Nairobi is a gateway to East Africa and was chosen by the China-Africa Development Fund for its regional office. It also falls on the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiatives. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is funding (most of Kenya's $2-billion, 1,000-MW coal-fired electricity plant). Finally, Chinese companies are building the ($3.8-billion) railway that will link Nairobi with port city Mombasa and eventually with Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan, increasing the country's attractiveness.
Chinese investment in Luanda is two-tiered: besides the state corporations, a lot of their former staff stayed on and started their own businesses. So Luanda will remain a top destination for Chinese investment.
Addis Ababa also gets an honorable mention because Ethiopia, together with Tanzania and Mozambique, has been chosen as China's showcase destination in Africa. When Ethiopia completes the 6,000-MW Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, it will provide cheap electricity and attract not just Chinese, but other investors as well.
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