Surging ahead

Experts say that given China's present economic state, a fast urban growth is in need.

China's urbanization lags behind its booming industrialization. According to a report published by Reuters, the Chinese rate of urbanization compared to industrialization is 1.09 (51.3 percent versus 46.8 percent), while that same rate globally is 1.95 (50.9 percent versus 26.1 percent).

China's economy has grown at its slowest speed since the second half of 2009, with GDP growing 7.6 percent in the second quarter of 2012. Determined to reverse this slow domestic growth, China has shifted focus toward urbanization.

In July, Vice Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that urbanization is a major driving force for domestic demand and an important base for the adjustment of economic structures.

Some experts estimate that China's rate of urbanization will further climb, nearing 60 percent by 2020. This is expected to bring investment and raise consumption, both of which can stimulate economic development in the decade to come.

Surging urbanization, if possible, would allow China to keep GDP growth at above 8 percent before 2015, according to a report released by China Investment Securities, a Shenzhen-headquartered company. 

Policy and the future

What confronts China is a tricky balance between speed and quality. Statistically, China's urban areas have expanded fast. But the quality of that expansion, given Xu's story and others like hers, is questionable.

Hu Cunzhi, Vice Minister of Land and Resources, pointed out earlier that from 1990 to 2000, land urbanization was 1.71 times faster than population urbanization. The trend went further this past decade: city areas expanded by 83 percent while urban populations expanded only 45 percent.

But population flow has to match the allocation of resources. At the 2012 China Urban Development Forum held in August, many experts agreed that the government interference needed to be reduced in order for population to flow naturally according to the demands of the market.

"Too much policy control oppressed the progress of urbanization," says Zhou Qiren at the seminar. Zhou is affiliated with the National School of Development at Peking University. "The household registration system and land system have impeded China's urbanization."

According to CASS' blue book, nearly 500 million farmers will migrate to cities in the next 20 years. To accommodate this influx, at least 40 trillion yuan ($6.35 trillion) will be needed to cover the cost of social welfare and public infrastructure development. On average, 2 trillion yuan ($317.46 billion) will be needed for each year. This amount represents 20 percent of the Chinese Government's annual revenue, according to 2011 data.

"To solve the problem, a mechanism should be established to share the costs among Central Government, local governments, enterprises and migrant workers," says Song Xiaowu, President of China Society of Economic Reform, in an interview with People's Daily.

690 million vs 656 million – number of Chinese city residents and rural Chinese in 201126 percent – the proportion of rural population in China in 1990

(Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China)