One child or two? This is the question soon to be pondered by more than 15 million couples across China’s mainland. They will become eligible later this year to have two children if one of the parents is an only child. The new population policy, issued in November 2013, has already seen the choice given to couples in 22 provincial-level regions by the end of April this year.

The new policy is seen as a move by the Chinese Government to loosen birth restriction and rip the one-child label off its family planning policy, which has been seen as controversial in some quarters and highly necessary in others.

Reasons and impact

Going back to China’s war periods during the 1940s, the high infant mortality rate and the absence of a social welfare system resulted in an inclination for couples to have more children, believing this would ensure a support group to continue the family name and provide for their old age. Many couples had such a philosophy even after war time. The result was a population boom from nearly 600 million in 1953 to 1 billion in 1982.

“Such a rapid growth in population meant increasing difficulties for food, clothing, transportation, health care, and employment, making it difficult to free the country from poverty and backwardness in the short term,” read an open letter to all Party members issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in 1980 when the one-child family-planning policy was adopted by the government.

According to Tian Xueyuan, a demographist and major architect of China’s family planning policy, the policy was designed to create a lower birth rate for one generation, ensuring there were fewer parents for the next generation. The time span allocated for the plan was three decades.

“After 30 years, the population problem will be eased, and a different policy could be taken then,” noted the open letter.

According to officials statistics, China saw 400 million less births in the past three decades, saving the nation from a population explosion. But the negative side of the policy emerged earlier than experts had estimated.

The low birth rate has become a major problem in China with an aging population and shrinking labor pool. In 2010, there were 119 million Chinese residents older than 65, supported by 800 million laborers, making the ratio of young to old 8.4:1. But the ratio is estimated to shrink to 3:1 in 2035 and 2:1 in 2050. The problem of how to provide for the aged has become a priority for both government and families.

Another problem emerging from the one-child policy is gender imbalance. Chinese families, particularly those in rural areas, culturally value boys more than girls. When the one-child policy was first launched, many families selectively aborted baby girls to save their birth quota for a boy. The Central Government tried to prevent this by easing the policy in rural areas since 1980: Rural residents can have a second child if their first born is a girl. But today, the ratio of men to women in China is still as high as 118 to 100, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Three decades of the family planning policy has also impacted China’s family structure. Born in the early 1980s, the first generation that were brought up in families of a 4-2-1 structure - four grandparents and two parents devoting all their attention to one child - received unprecedented social attention and scrutiny. Mass media called them “little emperors” in reference to their growing up as the center of attention and selfish behavior.

To ease the problems, since 2002, a policy amendment that permits married couples to have a second child if both of them are only children began implementation in several provinces, before being rolled out countrywide in 2011, 31 years after 1980.

“But a two-child policy for all couples would be impossible at this time because of the increase in the number of births the new policy would cause, and the resulting pressure on public service system,” said Wang Pei’an, Vice Minister of the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC).

“Population control and structure adjustment have to coordinate with each other,” said Zhai Zhenwu, a sociology professor with the Beijing-based Renmin University of China and Vice President of the China Population Association. “Because in the future, China cannot bear the pressure of a huge population, nor can it stand the quake from a rapid aging society.”

Markets, however, were quick to act after the new population policy was announced. During the first quarter of this year, Fujian Province in southeast China saw a 134 percent year-on-year increase of imported diapers. In addition, many housing and auto companies took a new marketing focus: homes and vehicles designed for the new larger family structure.

One child or two?

Now that there’s an opportunity for some to increase their families, sentiment varied on whether they would or not. After finding herself eligible, Beijing resident Belle Kim, a 32-year-old office worker, was determined to have one more child. She knows that if she doesn’t have a second child, the loneliness of no siblings and pressure to take care of parents alone will be thrust upon her only child.

However, Zuo Wei, a 36-year-old Beijing citizen and father of a three-year-old, decided that he will have no more children. The decision was made after a long family meeting, which included the grandparents. Zuo said that a combination of Beijing’s high living costs, surging housing prices, and limited medical resources are a barrier to having another child. He quoted a newspaper statistics that it costs 2.76 million yuan ($440,000) to raise a child from birth to college in Beijing.

Zuo said raising one child was already exhausting and the family would rather spend all they have on one, than divide their resources on two children.

A recent survey by NHFPC shows that more than 40 percent of eligible couples who are at child-bearing age said no to the idea of a second child.

Experts also have contradicting views on the population going forward. Ma Xu, the lead researcher of the NHFPC, estimated that an increase in births of up to 2 million babies would occur across the country every year. CA

Family Planning Policy Changes

» 1950s Population issue rose for the first time in the 1950s. The first national census launched in 1953 recorded a population of 580 million

» 1970s From the 1970s, the Chinese Government began to take measures to curb fast population growth. Through a campaign of “no more than two children in a family,” population growth was successfully reduced by half in the first half of the decade

» 1980 China introduced the one-child policy with a goal of keeping the population under 1.2 billion before the end of the 20th century

» 2011 A policy amendment that permits married couples to have a second child if both of them are only children was implemented around the country

» 2013 Policy issued allowing couples to have two children if one of the parents is an only child

» 2014 More than 15 million couples countrywide free to make choice of a two child family if one of the parents is an only child

China's family planning policy has slowed its population growth since its implementation

 zhengyang@chinafrica.cn