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VOL.3 July 2011
The Clock Is Ticking

In June, Abdul Ati al-Obeidi, Muammar Gaddafi's foreign minister, issued a statement that his leader is prepared to hold free elections. The conditions attached to the statement are that the UN cancels the no-fly zone, and diplomatic and material support is withdrawn from the rebel National Transitional Council (NTC). If this happens Gaddafi is prepared to begin negotiations with the NTC that would lead to free elections within six months.

Saif al-Islam, Gaddafi's son went further, saying the European Union, the African Union (AU), the United Nations or even NATO could supervise the elections in order to guarantee transparency.

But Jalal Gallal, the NTC spokesman, responded by saying the Gaddafi government has lost legitimacy and they will not negotiate with him. The only route, according to Gallal, is for Gaddafi to go, which he clearly is not prepared to do.

And so the conflict rages on.

The AU and visiting African leaders attempting to mediate in Libya have come up empty handed in regards to a solution acceptable to both stakeholders. If these observers with an intimate knowledge of how the crisis evolved and with their close ties to Libya cannot find a peaceful way forward, can Western intervention and all the bombing in the world force Gaddafi to leave office? It would appear not.

When Germany recognized the rebel NTC as the "sole legitimate representative" of the Libyan people, it became the 13th country to do so. France, Australia, Britain, Gambia, Italy, Jordan, Malta, Qatar, Senegal, Spain, the United Arab Emirates and the United States have already said they see the NTC as the way forward. 

And in the wake of over 50 of Gaddafi's senior-level diplomatic and government officials having defected, Mauritania's President Abdel Aziz, the leader of the AU's mediation team on Libya, in June formally called for Gaddafi to step down, saying his departure has become necessary as "he can no longer lead Libya." This direct message could be a turning point in the ongoing conflict as pressure on Gaddafi now mounts from all sides, including former allies.

It is well known that Libya has long helped finance Liberia, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Chad, Mali and Zimbabwe in the past, and despite the close cooperation he has with these countries, even they are acknowledging that Gaddafi must go.

Yet despite this, in Africa Gaddafi's government is still seen by some as a beacon in the battle against a revival of Western colonial intervention. As such the staunch resistance put up by Gaddafi's forces has a somewhat heroic aura in the eyes of anti-imperialists.  Libya is becoming the front line of African countries' resistance toward Western interference, say these supporters, rather than a place where the UN mandated a peacekeeping no-fly zone, intended to prevent Libyan civilians from being abused by the Gadhafi regime.

China's position on Libya has always been the hope that a political resolution is reached and the Libyan people should determine the country's future. China has avoided joining international calls for Gaddafi to step down.  However, having remained on the sidelines of the Libyan conflict, in June China did host NTC Chairman of the Executive Board Mahmoud Jibril who spent two days in Beijing to discuss the Libyan situation with the Chinese Foreign Ministry, in what analysts see as an attempt to get to know the rebels better. In addition, a meeting between the head of Libya's rebel council and China's ambassador to Qatar, prompted He Wenping, Director of the Institute of West Asia and African Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, to comment that it is "still a far cry from recognizing them (rebels)diplomatically." 

Despite the massive squeeze on Gaddafi to relinquish power, he currently won't be budged. With no solution seemingly available any time soon, in Libya the clock is ticking.

The Editor

 

 

 

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