The recent World Bank report of the continent's economy, "Africa's Pulse" laid out a very optimistic path for 2012. Coming off the back of an average 4.9 percent growth in 2011, Sub-Saharan Africa is poised for good economic times ahead, says the report. Among fast-growing economies in 2011 were resource-rich countries such as Ghana, Mozambique and Nigeria, as well as non-resource-rich economies such as Rwanda and Ethiopia, all attaining growth rates of at least 7 percent in 2011. Growth is projected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2012, rising to 5.6 percent in 2013, meaning some of the fastest growing countries in the world are in Africa.

Despite this optimism Africa faces a stream of risks going forward. One such risk to the global economy likely to affect Sub-Saharan Africa is a fall in commodity prices, made more likely with the projected slower growth forecasts for China. Commodities make up more than 70 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa's merchandise exports and remain a deeply worrying factor.

While many are upbeat about the favorable "Africa Pulse" projections, critics of the World Bank say its report is a form of subterfuge and provides misleading data about economic growth in certain African countries that are unable to feed their own people, yet sell off vast tracts of land to foreign companies who grow food, which is then exported to feed people in developing countries. In short, some say the favorable economic reports are legitimizing land grabbing on the continent.

Food security is a major challenge for Africa's economic progress. The Sahel region of West Africa, for example, is facing a critical shortage of food. The World Bank report says that less-than-average rainfall, poor distribution, and population displacement due to conflict have left more than 13-15 million people across Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mauritania vulnerable. March UN Food and Agricultural Organization figures show that the percentage of people at risk of hunger ranges from 10 to almost 35 percent of the populations of these countries. The continent's food plight is exacerbated by the poor rainfall forecast for the Horn of Africa in 2012, which will do nothing to reduce the famine in that region. There can be no economic growth without food security.

Further, the many millions of migrants having to flee from conflict zones are placing overwhelming pressure on the entire continent. The current conflict in Mali is a case in point, where large numbers have fled their homes to south Mali as well as to neighboring countries such as Burkina Faso and Mauritania, placing a huge strain on food markets and infrastructure. 

Ultimately, as always, Africa's economic destiny faces its major challenge from weak governance and the ongoing political turmoil that the recent spate of coups have shown. While external risks are the most damaging, especially from the eurozone debt crisis and tighter domestic policies in some large developing countries pushing African exports lower in late 2011, the challenge from political unrest within the continent is seriously detrimental, as it directly impacts on investment, merchandise trade and tourism. It is however encouraging to see the tough stance taken by the Economic Community of West African States in West Africa's ongoing conflicts.

Obiageli K. Ezekwesili, Vice President of the World Bank in charge of Africa, says the palpable dynamism on the continent itself fueled by economic growth, innovations in technology and the openness and spirit of Africa's young people, makes him confident that these challenges in Africa can be met. Optimism is infectious and always a good thing, whether in life, politics or economic projections. But it needs to be tempered with reality.

The Editor