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VOL.6 May 2014
Nigeria's Economic Conundrum

A major shift in Africa's dynamics took place on April 6, 2014, when Nigeria became the continent's major economy, surpassing South Africa for the first time. Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said it had revised the estimate of its gross domestic product (GDP) to 80.3 trillion naira (close to $510 billion). The figure puts Nigeria's economy at 26th globally. This was the first time the country had calculated its GDP in 24 years.

Revenue from a host of newer industries has helped Nigeria's economy make the step up. These include the highly successful movie industry, dubbed Nollywood, along with e-commerce, telecom and the music industry, which all were fledgling concerns 20 years ago, not included in the last calculation in 1990.

Nigeria's oil revenue, the major stalwart of its economy, has dropped significantly in the new GDP figure. The Economist has said that an 89 percent increase in GDP shows that the economy is “far more than just an oil enclave,”and that manufacturing is much larger than previously thought.

But despite the euphoria surrounding the top spot accolade, there is much contradiction beyond the surface.

On the flip side of an economy that has grown 12.7 percent between 2012 and 2013, there are still more than 60 percent of Nigerians living on less than one dollar a day. Earlier in April, the World Bank’s president said Nigeria has the third highest rate of poverty in the world in terms of gross figures, after only India and China, which both have comparatively much larger populations. Seventeen percent of the world’s poor, more than 100 million people, call Nigeria home.

The country's Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is aware of the poverty challenge and has said inequality has been rising in Africa's biggest oil producer and the country has to work on building a social safety net to take care of those at the bottom of the ladder.

Looking deeper, Nigeria's per-capita GDP is almost three times lower than South Africa's, while the continent's top 10 largest banks are South African. The World Bank, despite its president's assertion that poverty is rife, has said that it does support Nigeria's leap in the GDP hierarchy, however also noting that “the accuracy of the data can be improved further.”

With Nigeria's NBS reporting youth unemployment exceeding 54 percent, benefits of glowing GDP figures have to find their way to the populace. Being Africa's top economic performer on paper ultimately will mean nothing if it does not address the country's pressing problems of poverty and unemployment. If this does not happen, questions will be asked by Nigerians themselves as to the accuracy of the NBS data and what the significance of their country's rise in GDP really means to them.

THE EDITOR

 

 

 

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