Egypt is hoping to head into a period of stability. Sworn in as the country's new president on June 8, foremost on the mind of former army chief Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi must be how to revive an economy battered by three years of ongoing political chaos.
Experts have pointed to the fact that all signs show el-Sisi will reach out to the Gulf States and the East in this regard (with countries like Russia and China to feature prominently), in a bid to help meet his financial obligations and strengthen his position. The Gulf States and their obvious wealth can act as a counter-balance to U.S. and Western currencies and influence on Egypt, and the region in general.
Following el-Sisi's inauguration, Saudi King Abdullah made an international call to hold "a donor conference" as a means of helping Egypt kickstart its ailing economy. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies have already given Egypt some $20 billion in aid. In contrast, the U.S. suspended its $1.3 billion annual military aid to Egypt because of former President Mohamed Morsi's removal, but indications are that the White House and el-Sisi are prepared to work together going forward, mindful of the strategic position Egypt occupies in the region and the need to combat terrorism. Since 1979, Egypt has been the United States' closest ally in the Middle East after Israel.
An increasingly impatient population wait for el-Sisi to address poverty, illiteracy unemployment rates, free-falling investments and declining tourism revenues. This was encapsulated in the rallying cry for "bread, freedom and social justice" at the removal of Hosni Mubarak, and el-Sisi could be on the receiving end of a fresh mass revolt if he cannot show tangible progress on the economy.
Understanding the need for action, el-Sisi has advocated heavy government involvement in the economy, with state-sponsored mega-projects to create jobs and even in setting market prices, but how these job-creating measures would be paid for remains unexplained.
Politically, el-Sisi's brutal crackdown on Morsi supporters and his insistence that stability has priority over rights of speech and protest have led to Egypt's democracy described as being in suspended animation.
It is within this democratic backdrop that el-Sisi will need to walk a tightrope. Being a soldier and comfortable in running a direct military operation, he has inherited a presidency whose powers are now considerably curtailed by the country's new constitution. It will be critical to see how he handles a government where the majority of decisions, unlike military orders, will require cooperation and approval.
"We will make up what we have lost and we will establish a country with a better future," el-Sisi said at his inauguration. For Egypt and its trio of recent leaders, it had better be third time lucky.
THE EDITOR