The COMAC C919, China’s first domestically made large passenger plane, is set to launch its maiden flight by the end of next year, marking a milestone in the country’s aviation industry.

In time, the plane’s manufacturer, the Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China (COMAC), expects to challenge Boeing and Airbus in the global aviation market.

“I have no doubt Chinese leaders want a viable, global competitive aerospace industry. They are a world economic power...they’ve gone into space; why not aerospace?” Scott Hamilton, an aviation expert and Managing Director at consulting firm Leeham Co., told ChinAfrica. “To do so, you have to compete with the Big Dogs.”

For everyone involved, the stakes are huge.

China’s commercial aviation market is currently the second largest in the world, after only the United States. To keep up with surging demand for air travel from China’s expanding middle class, over the next 20 years Chinese airlines will need to add 6,000 new airplanes, valued at $780 billion, according to Boeing. For its part, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) plans to establish around 80 new Chinese airports by 2020, many in second-tier and inland Chinese cities.

All of this means big business for state-owned COMAC, which was established in 2008 under the auspices of the State Council with a mandate to design and manufacture aircraft for the civil sector. COMAC has since focused its efforts on two multi-billion dollar projects - the narrow-bodied C919, a passenger plane capable of seating around 170 passengers with a range of up to 5,500 km, and the ARJ21, a smaller, regional jet that can seat around 100 passengers.

Development has been turbulent for both programs, however. Despite first being planned by COMAC’s predecessor in 2005 and taking its first flight in 2008, the ARJ21 is yet to receive certification from either the CAAC or the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The company says it has pegged at least 250 orders for the jet from domestic carriers and holding groups and plans for certification to take place later this year followed closely by commercial service. Still, the perpetual delays and uncertainties have dented the ARJ21’s competitiveness.

“I’ve always viewed the two programs as learning experiences for the emerging Chinese aerospace industry,” Hamilton said, adding that growing pains are inevitable as China’s aerospace industry is essentially starting from scratch. “The next generation of airplanes will be the ones I view as more competitively threatening to Airbus and Boeing.”

The C919, the crown jewel of COMAC’s efforts, is designed in the same vein as the hugely popular Boeing 737 and Airbus A320. Its layout and fabrication are entirely domestic endeavors, but for now it relies on foreign technology for many core parts, including its engine, which is made by General Electric. There have been about 400 orders for the C919, with General Electric’s aviation leasing company the only foreign buyer so far, with an order of 20. After taking its maiden flight sometime in 2015, COMAC expects C919s to go into service in late 2016 or early 2017.

Creating a robust and globally competitive aerospace industry is a core goal of the Chinese Government, as highlighted in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15).

To this end, the government has plowed cash into developing the industry. Over the next few years, consulting firm Kuick Research says the Chinese Government will spend $250 billion to build up the aerospace industry, with $7 billion already spent on the C919 program alone.

Despite the flood of investment from state coffers and a steady stream of orders from domestic carriers, serious questions remain for COMAC. A recent report by the research group the RAND Corp. blasted the C919 and ARJ21 programs as doomed to failure owing to the imminent release of new models from Boeing and Airbus paired with the Chinese company’s inexperience. Proponents of the program fired back at the report, arguing that Boeing and Airbus both underwent similar struggles at their starts and that improvement comes only with time.

Assessing what would constitute a success for COMAC and China, Hamilton puts it bluntly.

“Benchmarks for success will be a C919 that actually does well economically...and which is reliable. From this, the next generation of airplanes can be pursued.” CA

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